Thinking out loud

Cool video of Steve Jobs presenting the Macintosh in 1984:

SUSIE GHARIB, ANCHOR, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT: Are we overly optimistic about what President Obama can do?

WARREN BUFFETT, CHAIRMAN, BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY: Well I think if you think that he can turn things around in a month or three months or six months and there’s going to be some magical transformation since he took office on the 20th that can’t happen and wouldn’t happen. So you don’t want to get into Superman-type expectations. On the other hand, I don’t think there’s anybody better than you could have had; have in the presidency than Barack Obama at this time. He understands economics. He’s a very smart guy. He’s a cool rational-type thinker. He will work with the right kind of people. So you’ve got the right person in the operating room, but it doesn’t mean the patient is going to leave the hospital tomorrow.
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SG: But I know that during the election that you were one of his economic advisors, what were you telling him?

WB: I was telling him business was going to be awful during the election period and that we were coming up in November to a terrible economic scene which would be even worse probably when he got inaugurated. So far I’ve been either lucky or right on that. But he’s got the right ideas. He believes in the same things I believe in. America ’s best days are ahead and that we’ve got a great economic machine, its sputtering now. And he believes there could be a more equitable job done in distributing the rewards of this great machine. But he doesn’t need my advice on anything.
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SG: What’s the most important thing you think he needs to fix?

WB: Well the most important thing to fix right now is the economy. We have a business slowdown particularly after October 1st it was sort of on a glide path downward up til roughly October 1st and then it went into a real nosedive. In fact in September I said we were in an economic Pearl Harbor and I’ve never used that phrase before. So he really has a tough economic situation and that’s his number one job. Now his number one job always is to keep America safe that goes without saying.

SG: But when you look at the economy, what do you think is the most important thing he needs to fix in the economy?

WB: Well we’ve had to get the credit system partially fixed in order for the economy to have a chance of starting to turn around. But there’s no magic bullet on this. They’re going to throw everything from the government they can in. As I said, the Treasury is going all in, the Fed and they have to and that isn’t necessarily going to produce anything dramatic in the short term at all. Over time the American economy is going to work fine.

SG: There is considerable debate as you know about whether President Obama is taking the right steps so we don’t get in this kind of economic mess again, where do you stand on that debate?

WB: Well I don’t think the worry right now should be about the next one, the worry should be about the present one. Let’s get this fire out and then we’ll figure out fire prevention for the future. But really the important thing to do now is to figure out how we get the American economy restarted and that’s not going to be easy and its not going to be soon, but its going to get done.

SG: But there is debate about whether there should be fiscal stimulus, whether tax cuts work or not. There is all of this academic debate among economists. What do you think? Is that the right way to go with stimulus and tax cuts?

WB: The answer is nobody knows. The economists don’t know. All you know is you throw everything at it and whether it’s more effective if you’re fighting a fire to be concentrating the water flow on this part or that part. You’re going to use every weapon you have in fighting it. And people, they do not know exactly what the effects are. Economists like to talk about it, but in the end they’ve been very, very wrong and most of them in recent years on this. We don’t know the perfect answers on it. What we do know is to stand by and do nothing is a terrible mistake or to follow Hoover-like policies would be a mistake and we don’t know how effective in the short run we don’t know how effective this will be and how quickly things will right themselves. We do know over time the American machine works wonderfully and it will work wonderfully again.

SG: But are we creating new problems?

WB: Always

Link: Calculated Risk: PBS Interview with Warren Buffett

[Original Excerpt from PBS Nightly Business Report]

Obama may get his wish to continue using his blackberry, at least partially. Here is a video on a secure PDA Blackberry-type device that he could use.

In the new world where RFID is being imbedded in everything from passports to credit cards, a new wallet promises to protect your information. It protects the contents from being scanned via RFID to retrieve data. It has two compartments; one for your cards, the other for cash and pictures. It also appears to be more solid than traditional wallets. What do you think of this new wallet design?

Check out this video:

It seems interesting, but I it seems bulky for only holding 8 cards plus cash. I would run out of room quickly. Check it out.

Welcome to FlipsideWallet.com, home of the revolutionary locking, RFID shielding wallet.

The Flipside Wallet™ takes aspects of the traditional bi-fold wallet and advances them to address modern concerns about security, durability and functionality. We construct our wallets out of an array of high strength polymers and anodized aluminum alloy components— all of which are recyclable.

Not only are these wallets durable, but they also shield your Credit and I.D. cards from Radio Frequency Identification Theft, also known as “RFID Theft.”

Cash, cards and pictures are securely contained and organized within a stylish, compact case that comfortably fits in your pocket or handbag.

Take a look at our features section to learn more about the Flipside Wallet™.

Link

An upcoming Wired graphic of some recent book-memes. This is good.

Link: Paul Kedrosky: The Long Tailed Black Swan’s Tipping Point

It’s all about the user experience. Say goodbye to the keyboard. Everything is just a few hundred clicks away.

Wireless power has been in the works for a while. Here is an example from CES 2009 that looks pretty good. Powermat is a mat-based charger that you just put your devices on. It charges using magnetic induction.

I’ve been wanting to see a magnetic induction table created for years.
I can see whole conference tables built like this where everyone’s laptop gets charged while they are sitting in the meeting. No more power cords everywhere.

Powermat displays new wireless charging systems at CES 2009, a convenient wireless alternative to mobile phone, computer and appliance chargers. The system uses magnetic induction to transfer energy to almost any device.

Link: Wireless Power Energizes Many Devices – Video – Wired

So, what’s next? As discussed before on Tomorrow’s Trends, 100% wireless (without the charging pads) is also a concept that is in the works. That is, the concept of transmitting energy directly through the air to devices.

Fast Company has a new article on wireless electricity:

THE INDUCTION SYSTEMS are only the beginning. Some of the most visually arresting examples of wireless electricity are based on what’s known as radio frequency, or RF. While less efficient, they work across distances of up to 85 feet. In these systems, electricity is transformed into radio waves, which are transmitted across a room, then received by so-called power harvesters and translated back into low-voltage direct current. Imagine smoke detectors or clocks that never need their batteries replaced.

Link: Wireless Electricity Is Here (Seriously) | Page 2 | Fast Company

RF induction systems are a lot less efficient right now, but could slowly charge small devices totally through the air.

Some good news today as the TED spread dropped significantly. But, this is not good news.

At first glance, the declining Chinese appetite for U.S. debt – apparent in a series of hints from Chinese policy makers over the past two weeks, with official statistics due for release in the next few days – comes at an inopportune time. On Tuesday, the U.S. president-elect, Barack Obama, said Americans should get used to the prospect of “trillion-dollar deficits for years to come” as he seeks to finance an $800 billion economic stimulus package.

Normally, China would be the most avid taker of the debt required to pay for those deficits, mainly short-term Treasury securities. In the past five years, China has spent as much as one-seventh of its entire economic output on the purchase of foreign debt – largely U.S. Treasury bonds and American mortgage-backed securities.

But now, Beijing is seeking to pay for its own $600 billion economic stimulus – just as tax revenue falls sharply as the Chinese economy slows.

Link: U.S. debt is losing its appeal in China – International Herald Tribune

This looks like a really interesting documentary on industrial design.
It will be coming out in March.

Objectified is a feature-length independent documentary about industrial design. It’s a look at the creativity at work behind everything from toothbrushes to tech gadgets. It’s about the people who re-examine, re-evaluate and re-invent our manufactured environment on a daily basis. It’s about personal expression, identity, consumerism, and sustainability. It’s about our relationship to mass-produced objects and, by extension, the people who design them.

Link: Objectified: A Documentary Film by Gary Hustwit