Thinking out loud

Mark Cuban had some comments on the Free/ Freemium business model…

Lets look at the rule that eventually KILLS all freemium based content plays:

There will always be a company that replaces you. At some point your BlackSwan competitor will appear and they will kick your ass. Their product will be better or more interesting or just better marketed than yours, and it also will be free. They will be Facebook to your Myspace, or Myspace to your Friendster or Google to your Yahoo. You get the point. Someone out there with a better idea will raise a bunch of money, give it away for free, build scale and charge less to reach the audience. Or will be differentiated enough, and important enough to the audience to maybe even charge more. Who knows. But they will kick your ass and you will be in trouble.

Link: blog maverick

People with a growth mindset feel smart when they’re learning, not when they’re flawless.

Michael Jordan, arguably the world’s best basketball player, has a growth mindset. Most successful people do. In high school he was cut from the basketball team but that obviously didn’t discourage him: “I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career, I’ve lost almost 300 games. Twenty-six times I’ve been trusted to take the game wining shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.”

Link: Why You Need to Fail – Peter Bregman – HarvardBusiness.org

(Hat Tip: Eric Mathews)

As I move close to a full decade since I picked up my master’s in business and technology, it is good to reflect back on what you may not hear in class.

From OnstartUps.com, here is a summary of the 10 things you won’t learn about startups.
(Hat Tip Rob May)

1. No amount of strategic planning will ever substitute for managing your cash flow.

2. There are always more things to do than there is time to do them.

3. Sleep is that time you’re working on startup problems with your eyes closed.

4. It helps not to call people “human resources”.

5. No amount of academic theories on efficient pricing will prepare you completely for what people will actually do.

6. Price discrimination (in an economic sense) is a wonderful thing. Except that it often ignores the real costs in terms of organizational complexity. Every time you add a new product or product option a small part of your company dies.

7. There are an infinite number of ways to spend money on marketing. You have no idea what’s actually going to work. The idea is to experiment broadly and learn lessons cheaply.

8. To recruit the best people…

9. There’s a lot of value to being likable. Good things happen when people like you.

10. Advanced game theory is exceptionally useful. Basic game theory is dangerous — because it assumes that you’re dealing with a bunch of rational “players”.

Read the full article at this link: Startups: 10 Things MBA Schools Won’t Teach You

Chris Anderson kicked off Wired’s Disruptive By Design conference and gave some ideas for old media wanting to find out how to make money in the new Internet driven world.

“This is the law of gravity online,” says Anderson. “Everything that becomes digital will become free. There will be a free version, either you will be competing with free or giving it away for free and selling something else. If it is not zero today, it will be zero tomorrow.”

When he addressed how this is affecting media and whether or not traditional media organizations should charge for their content online, he draws a number of conclusions from what the Wall Street Journal is doing. The tension is not so much free versus paid, but free versus freemium. In one slide, Anderson comes up with the following rules for media companies trying to figure out how to make money online:

1. The best model is a mix of free and paid
2. You can’t charge for an exclusive that will be repeated elsewhere,
3. Don’t charge for the most popular content on your site,
4. Content behind a pay wall should appeal to niches, the narrower the niche the better

Link

Adam Smith warned against subprime lending. In The Wealth of Nations, he advocated usury laws within the context of a free market.

From The Wealth of Nations:

The legal rate…ought not be much above the lowest market rate. If the legal rate of interest in Great Britain, for example, was fixed so high as eight or ten per cent, the greater part of the money which was to be lent would be lent to prodigals and projectors [promoters of fraudulent schemes], who alone would be willing to give this high interest….A great part of the capital of the country would thus be kept out of the hands which were most likely to make a profitable and advantageous use of it, and thrown into those which were most likely to waste and destroy it.

When the legal rate of interest, on the contrary is fixed but a very little above the lowest market rate, sober people are universally preferred, as borrowers, to prodigals and projectors. The person who lends money gets nearly as much interest from the former as he dares to take from the latter, and his money is much safer in the hands of the one set of people than in those of the other. A great part of the capital of the country is thus thrown in the hands in which it is most likely to be employed with advantage.

naked capitalism: Adam Smith Warned Against Subprime Lending.

SUSIE GHARIB, ANCHOR, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT: Are we overly optimistic about what President Obama can do?

WARREN BUFFETT, CHAIRMAN, BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY: Well I think if you think that he can turn things around in a month or three months or six months and there’s going to be some magical transformation since he took office on the 20th that can’t happen and wouldn’t happen. So you don’t want to get into Superman-type expectations. On the other hand, I don’t think there’s anybody better than you could have had; have in the presidency than Barack Obama at this time. He understands economics. He’s a very smart guy. He’s a cool rational-type thinker. He will work with the right kind of people. So you’ve got the right person in the operating room, but it doesn’t mean the patient is going to leave the hospital tomorrow.
…
SG: But I know that during the election that you were one of his economic advisors, what were you telling him?

WB: I was telling him business was going to be awful during the election period and that we were coming up in November to a terrible economic scene which would be even worse probably when he got inaugurated. So far I’ve been either lucky or right on that. But he’s got the right ideas. He believes in the same things I believe in. America ’s best days are ahead and that we’ve got a great economic machine, its sputtering now. And he believes there could be a more equitable job done in distributing the rewards of this great machine. But he doesn’t need my advice on anything.
…
SG: What’s the most important thing you think he needs to fix?

WB: Well the most important thing to fix right now is the economy. We have a business slowdown particularly after October 1st it was sort of on a glide path downward up til roughly October 1st and then it went into a real nosedive. In fact in September I said we were in an economic Pearl Harbor and I’ve never used that phrase before. So he really has a tough economic situation and that’s his number one job. Now his number one job always is to keep America safe that goes without saying.

SG: But when you look at the economy, what do you think is the most important thing he needs to fix in the economy?

WB: Well we’ve had to get the credit system partially fixed in order for the economy to have a chance of starting to turn around. But there’s no magic bullet on this. They’re going to throw everything from the government they can in. As I said, the Treasury is going all in, the Fed and they have to and that isn’t necessarily going to produce anything dramatic in the short term at all. Over time the American economy is going to work fine.

SG: There is considerable debate as you know about whether President Obama is taking the right steps so we don’t get in this kind of economic mess again, where do you stand on that debate?

WB: Well I don’t think the worry right now should be about the next one, the worry should be about the present one. Let’s get this fire out and then we’ll figure out fire prevention for the future. But really the important thing to do now is to figure out how we get the American economy restarted and that’s not going to be easy and its not going to be soon, but its going to get done.

SG: But there is debate about whether there should be fiscal stimulus, whether tax cuts work or not. There is all of this academic debate among economists. What do you think? Is that the right way to go with stimulus and tax cuts?

WB: The answer is nobody knows. The economists don’t know. All you know is you throw everything at it and whether it’s more effective if you’re fighting a fire to be concentrating the water flow on this part or that part. You’re going to use every weapon you have in fighting it. And people, they do not know exactly what the effects are. Economists like to talk about it, but in the end they’ve been very, very wrong and most of them in recent years on this. We don’t know the perfect answers on it. What we do know is to stand by and do nothing is a terrible mistake or to follow Hoover-like policies would be a mistake and we don’t know how effective in the short run we don’t know how effective this will be and how quickly things will right themselves. We do know over time the American machine works wonderfully and it will work wonderfully again.

SG: But are we creating new problems?

WB: Always

Link: Calculated Risk: PBS Interview with Warren Buffett

[Original Excerpt from PBS Nightly Business Report]

Some good news today as the TED spread dropped significantly. But, this is not good news.

At first glance, the declining Chinese appetite for U.S. debt – apparent in a series of hints from Chinese policy makers over the past two weeks, with official statistics due for release in the next few days – comes at an inopportune time. On Tuesday, the U.S. president-elect, Barack Obama, said Americans should get used to the prospect of “trillion-dollar deficits for years to come” as he seeks to finance an $800 billion economic stimulus package.

Normally, China would be the most avid taker of the debt required to pay for those deficits, mainly short-term Treasury securities. In the past five years, China has spent as much as one-seventh of its entire economic output on the purchase of foreign debt – largely U.S. Treasury bonds and American mortgage-backed securities.

But now, Beijing is seeking to pay for its own $600 billion economic stimulus – just as tax revenue falls sharply as the Chinese economy slows.

Link: U.S. debt is losing its appeal in China – International Herald Tribune

Innovation often causes increases in productivity, which can temporarily displace jobs in an economy. This NYT article has some good points on innovation overall…

“If you invest in a technology that makes something more efficient, the fear is that people will be put out of work,” says Kevin Efrusy, the venture capitalist whose firm Accel Partners is the lead funder of several important Silicon Valley start-ups, including Facebook. “But it’s just the opposite. When anything becomes cheaper, we consume a lot more of it. The overall economic effect is, you create and expand entire new industries and employment goes up.”

According to a 1995 study by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, periods of high productivity — often achieved through automation — were correlated with periods of high job growth throughout the last half of the 20th century. “Innovation leads to job growth directly and clearly,” says Robert D. Atkinson, president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation.

Link: Unboxed – Innovation Should Mean More Jobs, Not Less – NYTimes.com

This is an old misconception. Yes, individual jobs are lost, but at the macro-level jobs are created and optimized in other areas.

Also, government can perhaps set up an innovation framework and not try to pick and choose who the winners should be.

“Innovation is the lifeblood of the American economy,” says Jim Hock, a spokesman for TechNet. “We’re only as good as our next innovation. TechNet believes we shouldn’t be picking and choosing technologies to back with a tax credit. We should be technology-neutral and create an atmosphere of innovation that will let a thousand flowers bloom.”

And, finally it is all about the messy world of innovation…

“America is probably the best culture in the world at failing,” he said. “We’re willing to navigate in a fog and keep moving forward. Our competitive advantage tends to be at the fuzzy front end of things when you’re still finding your way. Once the way has been found, we’re back at a disadvantage. So, yes, investing in innovation is critical.”

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2. A Sense of Urgency
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3. The Brand Bubble: The Looming Crisis in Brand Value and How to Avoid It
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4. The Momentum Effect: How to Ignite Exceptional Growth
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5. The Back of the Napkin: Solving Problems and Selling Ideas with Pictures
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6. The Gone Fishin’ Portfolio: Get Wise, Get Wealthy…and Get on With Your Life (Agora Series)
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7. The Illusions of Entrepreneurship: The Costly Myths That Entrepreneurs, Investors, and Policy Makers Live By
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8. Groundswell: Winning in a World Transformed by Social Technologies
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9. The Contrarian Effect: Why It Pays (Big) to Take Typical Sales Advice and Do the Opposite
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10. Reality Check: The Irreverent Guide to Outsmarting, Outmanaging, and Outmarketing Your Competition
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Link: Best Books of 2008: Business and Investing